As a fantasy owner of Ronald Acuña Jr. for 2 of the last 3 seasons, I must say it has been quite fun. However, when I selected Acuña with the 1.1 pick in the draft this year, I thought I would be receiving a top 10 player at worst. So far, he has been around the 100 ranking as he struggles to return to superstar form. With all of his recent struggles, I have pondered trading him. Today, we will dive into what he has been struggling with and how he can return to the MVP player he was a season ago.

Illustration courtesy of Brett Davis from USA Today.

Earlier this week I caught Anthony Recker, of MLB Network, breaking down one aspect relating to some of the struggles that Acuña has delt with to begin the year. This year, Acuña simply has not been on time for the fastball which is causing him to miss off-speed pitches as a result. The concept made me dive a little deeper into whether this was a true issue or not and I am quite surprised to say the least.

Fastball Struggles

During last season when Acuña won MVP, his statistics were out of this world and extremely better in most categories than every year previous within his career. He had career highs in Home Runs, Runs Scored, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, Batting Average, On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage to name a few. This can be somewhat attributed to his swing timing and confidence. He was never late on a fastball which generated lots of power and ultimately home runs to both sides of the field. This year however, he has had trouble with the timing of fastballs which is causing him to guess on what pitch may be next.

Illustration courtesy of MLB Network from Statcast.

The graphic above depicts Acuña swinging and missing fastballs nearly two times more often than he did last year. When Acuña misses a fastball, he then falls behind in the count forcing him to hit off-speed. Hitters tend to struggle more often deeper in counts when pitchers break out their best off-speed pitches. In his situation, he has been guessing on which pitch may be coming and is off on the timing. By being on time for the fastball, it is much easier for the hitter to adjust when thrown an off-speed pitch.

Illustration created with R Studio ggplot2 package.

In the illustration, you notice the metric wFA per 100. The metric measures the batter’s average amount of runs produced against 100 fastballs thrown. The number 0 being average as it considers change in run expectancy per fastball thrown to the hitter. In this scenario, Acuña has never had a season in which he wasn’t above average. We can see his value per 100 fastballs last year was extremely high resulting in a career high in total wFA throughout the year. This year, however, Acuña is much below average and is nearing a value of negative 2 putting him near the bottom of the league.

As a result, he is seeing many more four seam fastballs this year than he did in the past. The incline from 2023 to 2024 sits at 6% more because pitchers are beginning to learn he is struggling to keep up. As can be seen below, the average MLB hitter sees a four seamer about 30% of the time across all their at-bats. This season, Acuña is seeing four seamers at a rate of nearly 8% more than league average which is a pretty wild rate considering he is still one of the most “feared” hitters in the league.

Illustration courtesy of Fangraphs.

Why is Acuña struggling?

Well, Acuña returned late to spring training, just 2 weeks before Opening Day, this year because he had felt slight soreness in his surgically repaired right knee. Could he simply be off to a slow start because he isn’t seeing the ball well or is he worried about maybe reinjuring his knee? We will only see how this plays out with time. However, Acuña needs to get his fastball timing back or he is going to continue to struggle at even higher rates as more pitchers and teams across the league begin to learn how to take advantage of him.

Illustration courtesy of Fangraphs.

So far this season his stats are very similar to previous years of his career. The two that stick out are his strikeout percentage and slugging percentage. His strikeout tendencies are extremely similar to the year before he won MVP. However, he is currently at a career low slugging percentage roughly a third of the way through the season.

Hopefully last year wasn’t simply a fluke as Acuña has too much talent for this to be true. We will only see how this plays out with time. However, Acuña needs to get his fastball timing back or he is going to continue to struggle at even higher rates as more pitchers and teams across the league begin to learn how to take advantage of him at the plate.

I believe that if Acuña can get his confidence back, which will come with time after reaggravating the knee not so long ago, he will begin to be on time with the fastball. Once he is on time with the fastball, we will see Acuña not only hit this pitch all over the park, but he will be ready for the off-speed that pitchers try to trick him with.

Sources

• Davis, B. (n.d.). Acuña offensive drop-off. Battery Power. USA Today. Retrieved from https://www.batterypower.com/2022/10/31/23430902/ronald-acuna-offensive- drop-off-atlanta-braves.
• Fangraphs. (n.d.). Ronald Acuña Jr.. Ronald Acuña Jr. - Stats - Batting . https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ronald-acuna-jr/18401/stats?position=OF
• Recker, A. (2024, May 23). Ronald Acuña Jr.’s struggles at the plate: Anthony Recker details Ronald Acuña Jr.’s struggles at the plate this season and how he can return to his historic 2023 form.: By MLB Networkfacebook. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1203495837334729