2024 SABR Diamond Dollars Case Competition

The link to the slideshow can be found by clicking on the image.

The prompt was to establish a set of criteria enabling competitors to create a metric defining the value of a given foul ball. The next step was to determine whether it benefitted the pitcher or hitter, and by how much.

We then decided we wanted to create a different metric for both hitters and pitchers to determine when a foul ball was beneficial towards the offense or defense. We calculated out probabilities based on the count and then created a supplement metric for the foul ball metric with xBA and the out probabilities modeled. We then created a Naive Bayes model to connect all of the supplements into one metric.

Our metric aimed to reward batters for fouling off pitches with a higher probability of being called a strike and punish batters for fouling off pitches with a lower probability of being called a strike.

I created a basic shiny app to display our results in a more interactive way. Click on the image for more! Reminder: There was only one week to complete the case competition and the shiny app was the least of priority on the last days so it is quite basic!